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Abstract The use of quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to monitor pathogens is common; however, quantitative frameworks that consider the observation process, dynamics in pathogen presence, and pathogen load are lacking. This can be problematic in the early stages of disease progression, where low level detections may be treated as ‘inconclusive’ and excluded from analyses. Alternatively, a framework that accounts for imperfect detection would provide more robust inferences. To better estimate pathogen dynamics, we developed a hierarchical multi-scale dynamic occupancy hurdle model (MS-DOHM). The model used data gathered during sampling forPseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), the causative agent of white-nose syndrome, a fungal disease that has cause severe declines in several species of hibernating bats in North America. The model allowed us to estimate initial occupancy, colonization, persistence and prevalence ofPdat bat hibernacula. Additionally, utilizing the relationship between cycle threshold and pathogen load, we estimated pathogen detectability and modeled expected colony and bat pathogen loads. To assess the ability of MS-DOHM to estimate pathogen dynamics, we compared MS-DOHM’s results to those of a dynamic occupancy model and naïve detection/non-detection. MS-DOHM’s estimates of site-level pathogen presence were up to 11.9% higher than estimates from the dynamic occupancy model and 35.7% higher than naïve occupancy. Including prevalence and load in our modeling framework resulted in estimates of pathogen arrival that were two to three years earlier compared to the dynamic occupancy and naïve detection/non-detection, respectively. Compared to naïve values, MS-DOHM predicted greater pathogen loads on colonies; however, we found no difference between model estimates and naïve values of prevalence. While the model predicted no declines in site-level prevalence, there were instances where pathogen load decreased in colonies that had beenPdpositive for longer periods of time. Our findings demonstrate that accounting for pathogen load and prevalence at multiple scales changes our understanding ofPddynamics, potentially allowing earlier conservation intervention. Additionally, we found that accounting for pathogen load and prevalence within hibernacula and among individuals resulted in a better fitting model with greater predictive ability. 

Anthropogenically driven environmental change has imposed substantial threats on biodiversity, including the emergence of infectious diseases that have resulted in declines of wildlife globally. In response to pathogen invasion, maintaining diversity within host populations across heterogenous environments is essential to facilitating species persistence. White-nose syndrome is an emerging fungal pathogen that has caused mass mortalities of hibernating bats across North America. However, in the northeast, peripheral island populations of the endangered northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis) appear to be persisting despite infection while mainland populations in the core of the species range have experienced sharp declines. Thus, this study investigated host and environmental factors that may contribute to divergent population responses. We compared patterns of pathogen exposure and infection intensity between populations and documented the environmental conditions and host activity patterns that may promote survival despite disease invasion. For island populations, we found lower prevalence and less severe infections, possibly due to a shorter hibernation duration compared to the mainland, which may reduce the time for disease progression. The coastal region of the northern myotis range may serve as habitat refugia that enables this species to persist despite pathogen exposure; however, conservation efforts could be critical to supporting species survival in the long term. 

Plasmodium parasites infect thousands of species and provide an exceptional system for studying host- pathogen dynamics, especially for multi-host pathogens. However, understanding these interactions requires an accurate assay of infection. Assessing Plasmodium infections using microscopy on blood smears often misses infections with low parasitemias (the fractions of cells infected), and biases in malaria prevalence estimates will differ among hosts that differ in mean parasitemias. We examined Plasmodium relictum infection and parasitemia using both microscopy of blood smears and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on 299 samples from multiple bird species in Hawai’i and fit models to predict parasitemias from qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values. We used these models to quantify the extent to which microscopy underestimated infection prevalence and to more accurately estimate infection pat- terns for each species for a large historical study done by microscopy. We found that most qPCR-positive wild-caught birds in Hawaii had low parasitemias (Ct scores 35), which were rarely detected by microscopy. The fraction of infections missed by microscopy differed substantially among eight species due to differences in species’ parasitemia levels. Infection prevalence was likely 4–5-fold higher than previous microscopy estimates for three introduced species, including Zosterops japonicus, Hawaii’s most abundant forest bird, which had low average parasitemias. In contrast, prevalence was likely only 1.5–2.3-fold higher than previous estimates for Himatione sanguinea and Chlorodrepanis virens, two native species with high average parasitemias. Our results indicate that relative patterns of infection among species differ substantially from those observed in previous microscopy studies, and that differences depend on variation in parasitemias among species. Although microscopy of blood smears is useful for estimating the frequency of different Plasmodium stages and host attributes, more sensitive quantitative methods, including qPCR, are needed to accurately estimate and compare infection prevalence among host species. 

ABSTRACT The skin microbiome is an essential line of host defense against pathogens, yet our understanding of microbial communities and how they change when hosts become infected is limited. We investigated skin microbial composition in three North American bat species (Myotis lucifugus,Eptesicus fuscus, andPerimyotis subflavus) that have been impacted by the infectious disease, white-nose syndrome, caused by an invasive fungal pathogen,Pseudogymnoascus destructans. We compared bacterial and fungal composition from 154 skin swab samples and 70 environmental samples using a targeted 16S rRNA and internal transcribed spacer amplicon approach. We found that forM. lucifugus, a species that experiences high mortality from white-nose syndrome, bacterial microbiome diversity was dramatically lower whenP. destructanswas present. Key bacterial families—including those potentially involved in pathogen defense—significantly differed in abundance in bats infected withP. destructanscompared to uninfected bats. However, skin bacterial diversity was not lower inE. fuscusorP. subflavuswhenP. destructanswas present despite populations of the latter species declining sharply from white-nose syndrome. The fungal species present on bats substantially overlapped with the fungal taxa present in the environment at the site where the bat was sampled, but fungal community composition was unaffected by the presence ofP. destructansfor any of the three bat species. This species-specific alteration in bat skin bacterial microbiomes after pathogen invasion may suggest a mechanism for the severity of white-nose syndrome inM. lucifugusbut not for other bat species impacted by the disease. IMPORTANCEInherent complexities in the composition of microbiomes can often preclude investigations of microbe-associated diseases. Instead of single organisms being associated with disease, community characteristics may be more relevant. Longitudinal microbiome studies of the same individual bats as pathogens arrive and infect a population are the ideal experiment but remain logistically challenging; therefore, investigations like our approach that are able to correlate invasive pathogens to alterations within a microbiome may be the next best alternative. The results of this study potentially suggest that microbiome-host interactions may determine the likelihood of infection. However, the contrasting relationship between Pd and the bacterial microbiomes ofMyotis lucifugusandPerimyotis subflavusindicate that we are just beginning to understand how the bat microbiome interacts with a fungal invader such as Pd. 

Abstract Environmental pathogen reservoirs exist for many globally important diseases and can fuel epidemics, influence pathogen evolution, and increase the threat of host extinction. Species composition can be an important factor that shapes reservoir dynamics and ultimately determines the outcome of a disease outbreak. However, disease‐induced mortality can change species communities, indicating that species responsible for environmental reservoir maintenance may change over time. Here we examine the reservoir dynamics ofPseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungal pathogen that causes white‐nose syndrome in bats. We quantified changes in pathogen shedding, infection prevalence and intensity, host abundance, and the subsequent propagule pressure imposed by each species over time. We find that highly shedding species are important during pathogen invasion, but contribute less over time to environmental contamination as they also suffer the greatest declines. Less infected species remain more abundant, resulting in equivalent or higher propagule pressure. More broadly, we demonstrate that high infection intensity and subsequent mortality during disease progression can reduce the contributions of high‐shedding species to long‐term pathogen maintenance. 

Understanding host persistence with emerging pathogens is essential for conserving populations. Hosts may initially survive pathogen invasions through pre-adaptive mechanisms. However, whether pre-adaptive traits are directionally selected to increase in frequency depends on the heritability and environmental dependence of the trait and the costs of trait maintenance. Body condition is likely an important pre-adaptive mechanism aiding in host survival, although can be seasonally variable in wildlife hosts. We used data collected over 7 years on bat body mass, infection and survival to determine the role of host body condition during the invasion and establishment of the emerging disease, white-nose syndrome. We found that when the pathogen first invaded, bats with higher body mass were more likely to survive, but this effect dissipated following the initial epizootic. We also found that heavier bats lost more weight overwinter, but fat loss depended on infection severity. Lastly, we found mixed support that bat mass increased in the population after pathogen arrival; high annual plasticity in individual bat masses may have reduced the potential for directional selection. Overall, our results suggest that some factors that contribute to host survival during pathogen invasion may diminish over time and are potentially replaced by other host adaptations. 

Abstract Disease results from interactions among the host, pathogen, and environment. Inoculation trials can quantify interactions among these players and explain aspects of disease ecology to inform management in variable and dynamic natural environments. White-nose Syndrome, a disease caused by the fungal pathogen, Pseudogymnoascus destructans ( Pd ), has caused severe population declines of several bat species in North America. We conducted the first experimental infection trial on the tri-colored bat, Perimyotis subflavus , to test the effect of temperature and humidity on disease severity. We also tested the effects of temperature and humidity on fungal growth and persistence on substrates. Unexpectedly, only 37% (35/95) of bats experimentally inoculated with Pd at the start of the experiment showed any infection response or disease symptoms after 83 days of captive hibernation. There was no evidence that temperature or humidity influenced infection response. Temperature had a strong effect on fungal growth on media plates, but the influence of humidity was more variable and uncertain. Designing laboratory studies to maximize research outcomes would be beneficial given the high costs of such efforts and potential for unexpected outcomes. Understanding the influence of microclimates on host–pathogen interactions remains an important consideration for managing wildlife diseases, particularly in variable environments. 

Demographic factors are fundamental in shaping infectious disease dynamics. Aspects of populations that create structure, like age and sex, can affect patterns of transmission, infection intensity and population outcomes. However, studies rarely link these processes from individual to population-scale effects. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying demographic differences in disease are frequently unclear. Here, we explore sex-biased infections for a multi-host fungal disease of bats, white-nose syndrome, and link disease-associated mortality between sexes, the distortion of sex ratios and the potential mechanisms underlying sex differences in infection. We collected data on host traits, infection intensity and survival of five bat species at 42 sites across seven years. We found females were more infected than males for all five species. Females also had lower apparent survival over winter and accounted for a smaller proportion of populations over time. Notably, female-biased infections were evident by early hibernation and likely driven by sex-based differences in autumn mating behaviour. Male bats were more active during autumn which likely reduced replication of the cool-growing fungus. Higher disease impacts in female bats may have cascading effects on bat populations beyond the hibernation season by limiting recruitment and increasing the risk of Allee effects.